Random Insanity Alliance Forum, Mark V
Cactuar Zone => Random lnsanity => Topic started by: Buck Turgidson on March 21, 2014, 04:20:27 am
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The strategic situation is bleak. Europe is too weak and corrupt to live without Russian gas, and the Ukies don't care enough about the Crimea to bleed for it.
It looks like the only way to dislodge Russia from Crimea is to activate NATO and have Turkey blockade the Bosphorus. If nothing is done, then Ukraine could go the way of Poland in WWII, with half of the country swallowed up by Putin, and the other half by the EU. Ukraine would not be the ideal frontier for peace, but would certainly allow European and Russian aggression to be contained.
So, Crimea cannot be attacked for obvious logistical reasons, and Russia would find the Bosphorus unassailable. Now matter which way you look at it, there is deadlock.
So, unless we want to appease Russia like we did with Hitler after the Sudetenland, you have to bomb them, and since the objective is tactical, I think nukes could be avoided.
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Not going to happen.
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Yes, nuke them. Nukes solve all problems.
:hurr:
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Yes, nuke them. Nukes solve all problems.
:hurr:
Goddamn your warmongering arse!
(punpunpunpunpun)
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Not going to happen.
I agree it won't but watch for each side to goad each other into making the first move... Turkey is the key to this...
Yes, nuke them. Nukes solve all problems.
:hurr:
They certainly solved WW2. Twice.
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They certainly solved WW2. Twice.
God bless the fantastic and ever watchful USA for their clever and tactical strike. Twice.
:hurr:
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IDK Russians anti-nuke capabilities. Would be curious to find out...
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I don't think it would get to that (nukes). The thing is that the Ukies will not act as US or EU proxies, so Russia has to bring the fight. If they make a move on the rest of Ukraine, I think that would do it.
So, the Ukies only need to mistreat or expel Russians in Donetsk to significantly escalate matters.
Does this scenario seem possible:
- Current sanctions don't do anything because the vast majority of Russians are poor peasants who are used to living at subsistence levels
- Ukies pass a law demanding all citizens pledge allegiance to the Ukraine Republic. Failure to do so means you cannot receive any government aid or work for the government. Your children are not allowed in public schools.
- Russia responds by taking Donetsk in support of ethnic Russian rights
- EU responds by boycotting Russian gas
- Israel responds by supporting Christian and Druze parts of Syria, placing the Hashemite port area under direct threat.
- Somehow Slovenia gets involved, but no one really knows them, so they spend the evening sitting on the hallway bench, drinking alone, and smiling. The attempt to look like they are having a good time is ridiculed by everyone, even Canada.
- Russia conducts reconnaissance flights over the rest of Ukraine, and one of their planes is shot down (actually it is a mechanical failure since the aircraft is Russian, and the AA is Ukrainian).
- Russia responds by conducting an airstrike on the AA position
- NATO is activated under a defensive mandate, and blockades the Bosporus
- Russia responds by deploying it submarine fleet.
- And then some asshole lights a match.