Time to bomb North Korea

[cctmsp13]

It is to prevent an arms race, as many other regional powers have stated they'd pull out of the NPT if there were a public acknowledgement of nuclear arms in Israel.  The existence of their Dimona reactor is enough to deter attack since it shows they could be nuclear capable in short order, without causing the international fallout a public declaration would have. 

But don't take my word for it, listen to this peanut farmer interviewed by the BBC
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7420573.stm

[Buck Turgidson]

Again, ipso facto ergo sum pro patria:  Why would Israel go to the point of creating 150 weapons if they can't tell anyone about it?  I mean, the reactor is understandable.  Even making 1, 5 or even 10 nukes.  but 150-200?

BTW Israel has done a good job of putting words in the mouths of Presidents in the past (ex or otherwise).  ref. G. W. Bush & WMD...

Remember when Saddam was playing the game of pretending he had a program?  His bluff was called, because it could be.

The only possible explanation I can think of for Israel to not declare its stockpiles is because it would be proof that the US is actively supporting & promoting nuke proliferation despite being a signatory to the NPT.  Where the hell would Israel test the weapons?  Their country is only a few KMs across at one point...  Where the hell would they get Uranium?  Ok, they have interests in Africa, but where would they process it?

If they have nukes, they got them from the US, and that makes every American President in the last 30 or 40 years a blatant liar and a threat to world peace.  Except the peanut farmer, who, based on this interview, may be a traitor.

[cctmsp13]

most likely they don't have 150 weapons sitting around, the estimates are if they run their reactor at top efficiency, they could have enough material for that many weapons.  I agree they probably only have a few weapons, and 'parts' for many more.

Uranium ore is rather common, so finding it isn't too difficult (it's the enrichment that's hard, unless you're Canadian, they don't bother).  Many people think they did a trade with South Africa when that country was running it's bomb program. 

You're right that testing is the sticking point.  However we didn't test the 'little boy' design before use (Trinity was a 'fat man' type) and South Africa had 6 nukes and never tested any.

[Buck Turgidson]

The US went out on a limb with little boy, in a desperate bid to end WW2.  The purpose was not deterrence, but compellence. 

I forgot about the SA link, but again, testing is the fundamental proof of your arsenal, and its credibility rests upon successful testing.  I mean, what would they do, surprise attack someone with a nuke?

[Pterrydactyl]

Lol, only 5k?  Please.  Try 17k.


http://ploughshares.org/world-nuclear-stockpile-report

17K if you count those that need to be taken out of storage, armed, and deployed first (a 2-3 month process).  5K could be fired today by all sides.

This is 2008-2009 data:

http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat

the fuck?! pakistan have more nukes than israel? they also have one of the best intel agencies in the world.

Assuming Israel isn't bluffing ala Saddam...  If they have anything it is probably only deliverable by aircraft, and therefore far from certain to hit...

Spoilers: We gave Israel MIRV technology.  They can pretty much hit almost anywhere we can.  I'd be surprised if (when it comes to light) it wasn't us who gave them nuke technology in the first place.

[Buck Turgidson]

A MIRV's range is based on the candle under it.

But seriously, if Israel has nukes, why keep it a secret?  That is the real question if they do indeed have them.

[cctmsp13]

Lol, only 5k?  Please.  Try 17k.


http://ploughshares.org/world-nuclear-stockpile-report

17K if you count those that need to be taken out of storage, armed, and deployed first (a 2-3 month process).  5K could be fired today by all sides.

This is 2008-2009 data:

http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat

the fuck?! pakistan have more nukes than israel? they also have one of the best intel agencies in the world.

Assuming Israel isn't bluffing ala Saddam...  If they have anything it is probably only deliverable by aircraft, and therefore far from certain to hit...

Spoilers: We gave Israel MIRV technology.  They can pretty much hit almost anywhere we can.  I'd be surprised if (when it comes to light) it wasn't us who gave them nuke technology in the first place.

More likely a combo of France and South Africa.  France will sell reactors to anyone.

Also, what GS said about MIRVs, that said, Jericho III is a very sizable candle.

[Pterrydactyl]

Exactly. I think it's 11k KM?  So, that's on par with the Trident II, one of our better missiles.

[Buck Turgidson]

So if this is the case, do you blame Iran for wanting nukes & delivery systems?

Again, why not tell the world you have them?  Or categorically deny that you do?