Considering that only about 30% of registered voters actually vote, the election is not about who people think it right. It's about who is pissed off enough to actually go to the polls to vote.
It is the electoral equivalent of a military coup every 4 years. But there are defenders - people who are happy enough with the incumbent to vote for him again. The key word here is "him" - none of this perverse UK shit about electing a woman into office. Praise be the glass ceiling.
Actually all the math is wrong here. About 60% of voters vote for the same party year after year. In fact, they would be happier with some sort of dictatorship, as long as their party was always in control. So the election itself is decided by the remaining 40% of registered voters who actually take the time to cast their vote - this is about 5-10% of the total adult toniculation. So, effectively, the multipliers are much higher...
That may be true, but the votes all still count in this scenario and are equally important.
What the hell does that even mean, man? Your math is fucked up!